Another Dry Year Ahead For the Golden State?

Stock photo.

Early indicators are showing that California may be facing another consecutive drought year. The state’s first snow survey of the 2009/2010 winter season was put out late last week, showing that snow water content is 15 percent below normal for this time of year.

It’s better than this time last year, when snow water was 24 percent below normal state levels, but still a cause for concern. “Despite some recent storms, the snow survey shows that we’re still playing catch-up when it comes to statewide water supplies,” said Sue Sims, chief deputy director of the California Department of Water Resources.

Snow water content is important in determining the coming year’s water supply. The measurements are used to provide data to hydroelectric power companies, the recreation industry, and hydrologists that prepare water supply forecasts.

The DWR’s early estimate is that it will only be able to deliver about five percent of the requested State Water Project water to the Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley, Central Coast, and Southern California. This reflects low storage levels in the state’s major reservoirs, and restrictions on water deliveries from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in order to protect endangered fish species.

Lake Oroville - the principal storage reservoir for the State Water Project - is at 47 percent of its average storage for this time of year, according to the DWR.

Map courtersy of houseboating.org

“We’re looking at the real possibility of a fourth dry year. Our state is now working on preparing and conserving so that we will have enough water for our homes, businesses, and farms this year, and in the future,” said Ms. Sims.

None of this comes as surprising news to the Santa Clara Valley Water District board of directors, who adopted a resolution early last month to continue the call for a 15 percent mandatory conservation through June of 2010. Despite recent rainfall, the water district’s local reservoirs are at roughly 42 percent of capacity.

“We may have rain in our current forecast, but we are still facing another season of water supply uncertainty. We want to send a strong and consistent message to the community that conservation is still needed,” said Sig Sanchez, board chairman of the water district.

Mr. Sanchez went on to say, “When the DWR recently announced that they will only be allocating five percent of the total contracted water deliveries to the State Water Project contractors for 2010, our water supply outlook is impacted.

“The State Water Project normally accounts for between 10 to 20 percent of the district’s total water supplies. While this allocation number could potentially increase, it’s still the lowest allocation on record from the DWR.”

There is some good reason for hope. The California drought update for December 2009 said that, “By November 2009, ocean and atmospheric conditions were shifting to an El Nino pattern (a warm ocean current, often bringing rain), with forecasts calling for the possibility of a moderate El Nino in the coming winter.”

On average, 75 percent of the state’s average annual precipitation occurs between November and March, with half of it occurring between December and February. “A few major storms more or less shift the balance between a wet year and a dry one,” according to the drought update.

Reader comments and input are always welcomed!