Photo courtesy of CHICAGOLAND TELEVISION.
Water has awesome power. As we’ve often seen it can either be the bringer of life or its ultimate destroyer. Hopefully, not too much of the latter happens this year, as researchers at Colorado State University forecast “an above average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season.”
They’re basing this on the projection that El Nino conditions (warm ocean currents, often brining rain) will dissipate by this summer, but that warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will continue.
“Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent. While patterns may change before the start of hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above average season,” said William Gray, head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State.
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from June 1 to Nov. 30. During this time, university researchers are predicting 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin, with eight expected to be hurricanes, and four developing into major hurricanes (categories 3-5, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater).
They’re predicting a “58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean.” The long term average is 42 percent, according the researchers.
Colorado State says it bases its forecasts on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures, and sea level pressures - from past seasons can provide meaningful information about similar future trends.
As far as water deluge, this year the Midwest is also at a higher than normal risk for increased severe flooding.
Photo courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report last month that overall, more than a third of the contiguous U.S. has an above average flood risk - with the highest threat in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa, including along the Red River Valley where crests could approach record levels set just last year.
“As spring thaw melts the snowpack, saturated and frozen ground in the Midwest will exacerbate the flooding of the flat terrain and feed rising rivers and streams. We will continue to refine forecasts to account for additional precipitation and rising temperatures, which affect the rate and severity of flooding,” said a statement by Jane Lubchenco, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere at NOAA.
Among the factors contributing to the forecast, according to NOAA, is that the snowpacks in the Midwest are “more extensive than in 2009” and contain “in excess of 10 inches of liquid water in some locations.”
The agency’s report found that, until early March, consistently cold temperatures limited snow melt and runoff. These conditions exist on top of above normal stream flows; December precipitation that was up to four times above average; and ground frozen to depths of as much as three feet below the surface .
Forecasting isn’t an exact science, and the agency can’t predict exactly when and where a flood will occur, but NOAA does offer the following safety tips:
- If flooding occurs, get to higher ground. Get out of areas subject to flooding. This includes dips, low spots, canyons, washes etc.
- Avoid areas already flooded, especially if the water is flowing fast. Do not attempt to cross flowing streams.
- Road beds may be washed out under flood waters. NEVER drive through flooded roadways. If your vehicle is suddenly caught in rising water, leave it immediately and seek higher ground.
- Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes, particularly during threatening conditions. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers.
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